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28 October 2022

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Samuel to attend Private Equity Indonesia Spring Forum

Federal Reserve telah mengumumkan keputusan menaikkan suku bunga pada bulan Maret dengan opsi kenaikan tambahan di bulan Mei. Sikap the Fed yang lebih hawkish telah memicu aksi jual. Dow Jones turun -0.38% ke 34,168.1 pada 26 Januari diikuti oleh S&P 500 yang turun-0.15% ke 4,349.9. Sedangkan, NASDAQ dapat bertahan dan mencatat hasil positif naik 0.02% ke 13,542.1. Yield treasury 10-tahun Amerika Serikat naik 95 bps ke 1.86%. Selain itu, the Fedjuga mengkonfirmasi rencana liftoff yang rencananya akan dilaksanakan setelah kenaikan suku bunga. Detail dari rencana liftoff the Fed akan diumumkan kemudian. Mengacu pada kebijakan liftoff 2018, kami memperkirakan liftoff akan dimulai April dengan laju USD10bn per bulan dan naik bertahap ke USD50bn per bulan (lihat Chart 1).

Bank of England (BOE) dan European Central Bank (ECB) berada di bawah tekanan untuk memperketat kebijakan moneter mereka. Pasar berekspektasi BOE akan menaikkan suku bunga acuan 25 bps ke 0.5% bulan depan untuk meredam inflasi yang tercatat 5.4% yoy pada Desember 2021 (lihat Chart 2). Presiden ECB Christine Lagarde mencoba melawan tekanan dari pasar untuk mempercepat tapering dengan berargumen inflasi di zona Euro 5% yoy masih lebih rendah dari inflasi AS 7% yoy. Pernyataan ECB telah memicu realokasi aset dari zona Euro ke AS yang tercermin pada kenaikan dollar index dari 95.6 pada 21 Januari menjadi 96.5 pada 26 Januari.

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Global Macro Report 28 January 2022 (Eng)
Global Macro Report 28 January 2022 (Ind)

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